What is really happening in the growing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States — and how should we understand it beyond the headlines?
In this episode of The Way Forward: Regenerative Conversations, veteran journalist and Middle East expert Barbara Slavin joins us for a thoughtful exploration of the historical, political, and cultural forces shaping the current crisis.
Barbara is a Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center, one of Washington’s leading non-partisan think tanks focused on international peace and security. With more than three decades covering Iran and nine visits to the country, she brings rare depth and nuance to a conversation often reduced to polarized narratives.
This discussion explores the Iran conflict, U.S.–Iran relations, Israel–Iran tensions, Middle East geopolitics, nuclear diplomacy, sanctions policy, and the future of regional stability.
Rather than amplifying fear or taking sides, we slow down and ask:
- What historical forces led to this moment?
• How does Iranian nationalism shape current events?
• What geopolitical realities lie behind the headlines?
• What roles do Russia, China, Europe, and regional powers play?
• What realistic paths forward might still exist?
Our goal — consistent with the spirit of The Way Forward — is to offer a calm, reflective conversation that helps us understand complex global events with greater depth and wisdom.
Topics Covered
- Iran–Israel tensions and escalation risks
• U.S.–Iran relations and the legacy of the 1953 coup
• Iran’s nuclear program and regional security
• Russia and China’s role in Middle East geopolitics
• Economic pressures and protests inside Iran
• Iranian nationalism and public opinion
• Drone warfare and asymmetric military strategy
• Diplomacy, sanctions relief, and possible paths forward
• Cultural understanding between the United States and Iran
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction — why this conflict matters now
03:15 Barbara’s 30-year journey studying Iran
06:00 Escalation from the 2025 bombings
06:22 Was the strike on Iran a surprise?
09:29 Iranian nationalism and the legacy of the 1953 coup
11:37 Possible pathways for the crisis
14:59 Iran’s drone capabilities
15:22 The human dimension inside Iran
19:43 Economic pressures and protests
20:21 The nuclear question
25:01 Why targeting leaders rarely works
26:48 Diverging U.S. and Israeli objectives
30:06 Russia and China’s strategic role
33:35 Impact on Gulf states and regional stability
35:52 Diplomacy and sanctions relief
38:03 Iranian culture and civilization
43:05 Iranian public opinion on Israel
46:00 Can Europe play a constructive role?
48:06 Barbara’s closing reflections
52:05 John’s closing thoughts
About Our Guest
Barbara Slavin is a Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center, a leading Washington think tank dedicated to international peace and security. She previously reported for The Economist and USA Today and has covered Iran and the Middle East for more than 30 years.
Her book Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies remains one of the most insightful analyses of U.S.–Iran relations.
Watch Our Previous Conversation
The Middle East in Crisis: A Conversation with Barbara Slavin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwiYDua4Jnk&t=863s
About The Way Forward
The Way Forward: Regenerative Conversations is hosted by Dr. John Izzo, Alain Gauthier, and producer Jim Burke.
The podcast explores the deeper questions facing humanity through thoughtful dialogue with scholars, leaders, and practitioners working toward a more regenerative future.
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What perspectives on Iran or the Middle East deserve deeper discussion?
00:00:00
the war in iran is rocking the world the world's economy and making headlines everywhere but what's
00:00:08
behind the headlines what's actually happening inside iran is this war going to make it more
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likely that a positive constructive regime emerges for the world and for the iranian people or is it
00:00:19
going to make it less likely what will be the actual consequences and what are the cross
00:00:24
currents going on inside of iran well today in this podcast we are joined by barbara slavin one
00:00:30
of the leading experts on iran over these last 30 years who's going to engage in that conversation
00:00:36
with us if you're curious what's actually happening in iran and what the future might
00:00:41
look like as well as the wisdom of this present war and how it's being waged you want to listen
00:00:48
to this episode let's get started hi i'm dr john iso and on behalf of my co-host
00:00:54
elon gauthier i want to welcome you to this episode of the way forward regenerative
00:00:59
conversations podcast where as you know we explore ideas and issues about the future of humanity and
00:01:06
planet we take on the big issues and try to help all of us think about how we can make change going
00:01:12
forward now today of course we're dealing with one of the most important issues of this very
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moment which is the war in iran for decades analysts and diplomats warned that the iran
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would be a major regional war in the middle east and today the moment is no longer hypothetical
00:01:31
we're finally living through it its end game is uncertain the consequences unknowable and
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its impact already reshaping the region in ways that will likely be felt for years if not decades
00:01:43
the crisis carries also a heavy historical weight at the dawn of the islamic republic
00:01:49
iran held 52 american diplomats and citizens hostage for 440 years
00:01:54
in the last 44 days an episode that defined u.s iran relations for a generation and in many ways
00:02:01
i would argue that the islamic republic has continued to hold much of the middle east
00:02:06
and perhaps its own people hostage ever since through repression at home and proxy conflicts
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abroad but what makes this moment even more consequential is that for the first time the
00:02:17
united states and israel have come together to wage an offensive war against iran let that not
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be lost on us
00:02:24
israel's history that the united states has conducted an offensive war alongside of israel
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they've defended israel many times but never conducted a war alongside them that alone opens
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the door to new dynamics new risks and new possibilities for what may follow we're lucky to
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be joined today by someone who has spent her career helping us understand iran beyond the
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headlines barbara slavin is a long-time journalist author and one of the most respected american
00:02:51
voices on iran she's also a
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distinguished fellow at the stimson center where i'm proud to be one of her colleagues
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she has reported from iran interviewed its leaders and studied its politics and society for decades
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few people can bring the depth of perspective that she can at this moment and barbara we want
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to thank you for joining us again on the way forward thank you it's my pleasure to be with you
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so barbara i remember last time we were together before we get into the meat of this today
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i remember last time when we had you on you told us a beautiful story about when you first got in
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to iran you were interested in international politics when you as a young student remember
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as elementary school even or you were said the russians are people too and and you kind of got
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some flack for that but talk to us about you know you've spent so much of your professional life
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focused on iran remind our listeners what first drew you to that country and what has kept that
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fascination alive over these decades well i think anybody who was alive during the hostage crisis
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referenced and the iranian revolution was interested in this country but i've made
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a bit of a specialty out of countries that the united states has no relations with or bad
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relations with and that began as a student in the soviet union in the 1970s then in the 1980s
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i was a correspondent for the economist in china and then later i was a diplomatic correspondent
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for usa today based in washington and it was at a time when iran
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was showing indications that wanted to change its pariah status and reach out to the west and i found
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this irresistible i had lived in egypt also in the 1980s but i didn't get a chance to go to iran i
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went to a lot of arab countries i went to iraq during the iran-iraq war and so i had an opportunity
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to go to iran for the first time 30 years ago to do a piece on the status of women in the muslim
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world this was after the taliban had just been overthrown and the iranian revolution had begun
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and the iranian revolution had just consolidated control of afghanistan for the first time
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and my editor at the time wanted me to do this sort of comparative piece so i said why don't i
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go back to egypt where i know a lot of people and i've always wanted to go to iran you know i had
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heard from other journalists that it was much more nuanced and fascinating than a lot of the black
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white portrayals would lead you to believe and so i went for just a week in 96 i was blown away by the
00:05:24
complexity of the society the beauty of the country and i was able to go back eight more
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times and subsequently write a book about u.s iran relations yes iran has committed many sins but
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the record is not altogether one-sided the united states has also missed significant opportunities
00:05:44
or ruined opportunities to change the trajectory of the iranian regime and we are where we are
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today this is not the first time this is a continuation
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of the war that started in june of last year when the united states and israel bombed iran
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but obviously this war is much more much more devastating and has much more serious consequences
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yeah i agree and my point was that this is the first time in all-out war in essence but you're
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right that last year was the beginning with the bombing of the the nuclear facilities was the
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beginning of this kind of level of cooperation i want to start barbara we're going to get things
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a lot of these things that you mentioned
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here but let's start with a an obvious question were you surprised by the decision to strike iran
00:06:30
now in this way and what do you think drove the timing why do you think it happened now because
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it could have happened any time yeah you know yes and no i mean yes i was surprised because
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i've always thought this was a very bad move and we can talk about why
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no because i think that both bb netanyahu and donald trump were itching to do this you know some
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accounts blame the israelis but this i you know donald trump wanted to do this he was
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puffed up by his success in venezuela the fact that he was able to extricate mr maduro without
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a loss of american lives and he thought somehow that u.s military might was so great
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that he could pull off something similar if not identical in iran and this shows that he really
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doesn't understand iran and doesn't understand the
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middle east he he was looking for an excuse to do this and i there was a question about whether
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this might happen at the end of the year but the israelis were not ready they didn't have
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sufficient defensive mechanisms in place they wanted to build up their defenses some more
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and the united states had most of its resources off the coast of venezuela so trump waited you
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know he made this promise to the iranian demonstrators who were mowed down by their
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own government in january that
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help is on the way but help was not on the way then he had to wait to move all these assets
00:08:00
into the region before he was ready to strike but i think he was determined to do this
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yeah and certainly netanyahu and the israeli government have been itching to
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you know go all out on iran for a long time right particularly netanyahu netanyahu has
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wanted to do this in a serious way since 2010 2012 and he tried very hard to get obama to agree
00:08:24
to join with israel to bomb iranian nuclear sites and obama said no and instead negotiated
00:08:30
a diplomatic agreement that restrained iran's nuclear program an agreement that trump quit
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unilaterally in 2018. you know one of the ironic things then i think elon's going to take us to
00:08:42
think about what your thoughts are further on this but i was thinking you mentioned venezuela and
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i think one of the critical miscalculations already i see of the trump administration on this
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one is that venezuela is a very important part of the united states and i think it's important to
00:08:54
get to that point but you know it's very interesting but what's the point is venezuela
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is at a moment's time the country is pretty much run by corrupt people you know who just pretty
00:09:02
much were there for the corruption so you can do a deal with corrupt people but this is a different
00:09:08
situation the leaders of the islamic revolution in iran they are zealots and you could argue the
00:09:14
israelis may also be there but what i mean is that they're not eager just to do a deal and as
00:09:19
you said maybe earlier that may have been true and i'm wondering how your point about many times there
00:09:24
about what that means now about the possibility of a deal ever emerging.
00:09:29
Yeah, first of all, I would object to using the term zealot. I think you have
00:09:33
a deeply ideological regime, but also a very nationalistic one. This is a form of Iranian
00:09:39
nationalism. The revolution was fought to get independence from the superpowers, particularly
00:09:45
from the United States, which had interfered in Iranian politics since World War II. And,
00:09:52
you know, I wasn't, I don't personally remember this, but in 1953, the CIA overthrew Mohamed
00:09:59
Mossadegh, who was the Iranian prime minister on whose watch Iran nationalized its oil from the
00:10:05
British. And the British conned us into a CIA operation to remove Mohamed Mossadegh and put
00:10:12
the Shah back on the throne. And then 25 years later, there was an Iranian revolution against
00:10:18
foreign interference in Iranian affairs. It's a country that has been repeatedly
00:10:22
invented.
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The British and the Russians basically controlled it at the turn of the last century. And so it is
00:10:30
not just zealotry. It is a desire for sovereignty and independence on the part of these people,
00:10:36
mixed with Islamic ideology and animosity in particular toward Israel and toward the United
00:10:42
States for propping up Israel. It's also corruption, a lot of corruption in the system.
00:10:48
So in that, you know, it's similar to Venezuela, but it's a mixture
00:10:52
of
00:10:52
motivations on the part of the Iranian government. Remember, Iran is 2 years old as a coherent
00:10:59
civilization, as an empire. And so this is a society with very, very deep roots. And you mess
00:11:09
with this at your peril. And a good example, isn't it? And now turn it over to Alana about
00:11:14
colonialism always comes back to backfire, right? Fractures society.
00:11:20
Intervention. It comes back.
00:11:22
It has blowback. Even if it takes a quarter of a century, you know, you pay the price at some
00:11:28
point for trying to direct the affairs of another country, another civilization.
00:11:35
Yeah. Amen to that. Alana, over to you.
00:11:37
Barbara, you said a little while ago that this was a bad move. And I would like to ask,
00:11:43
and from where you sit, then, what are the most realistic pathways for how this crisis could
00:11:49
unfold?
00:11:50
Well, I think that Donald Trump is going to call,
00:11:52
ceasefire in a week or two. Price of oil is well over $100 a barrel. The stock market,
00:11:59
the last time I checked, was down another 800 points or 1 points. Inflation is up.
00:12:06
We have midterm elections coming in November. He has to cut this short or the impact on the
00:12:12
U.S. and world economies is going to be absolutely devastating. Iran has, for the first time,
00:12:17
effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 20% of the world's oil.
00:12:22
From getting out and a good bit of its liquefied natural gas. Shipping of all sorts is interrupted.
00:12:30
Infrastructure is being hit in the GCC states. Terrifying business people and tourists who used
00:12:37
to think this was a bubble of stability in the Middle East. It's not. The bubble has burst.
00:12:41
So this cannot go on that much longer. And Iran will outlast the United States. I think I heard
00:12:49
Pete Hegseth saying last week that,
00:12:52
Iran can't outlast the U.S. Well, you know, I could say something impolite now. Iran will outlast
00:13:00
the United States, I think, because this was a war that was entered into without any
00:13:08
reasonable, feasible objectives or a day-after plan. It will degrade Iran's military infrastructure
00:13:17
along with its civilian infrastructure. It will make it a poor and weaker place. It will also
00:13:22
make it angrier, more resentful, more determined to exact revenge, one way or the other, on the
00:13:28
United States and Israel. And again, you know, we cannot know now how Iran will respond going down
00:13:35
the road. But I think it's a fair bet that there will be very negative repercussions that perhaps
00:13:41
were not even anticipated by, certainly not by Donald Trump, and maybe even not by the Israelis.
00:13:46
And from that perspective, are there some scenarios,
00:13:51
analysis, that,
00:13:52
excuse me, are there some scenarios analysts are not paying enough attention to?
00:13:59
No, actually, the, you know, the analyst class has been pretty unified.
00:14:05
This was not the war we should have gotten into. I mean, I just got my copy of The Economist.
00:14:12
A war without a strategy is their headline. And, you know, they and everyone else is saying,
00:14:19
you know, this was unnecessary. I mean, Iran was not preserved.
00:14:22
I mean, Iran was not preserved. I mean, Iran was not preserved. I mean, Iran was not preserved.
00:14:23
It was an imminent threat to the United States, not even to Israel at this point. It had suffered
00:14:28
a lot of blows over the last couple of years. And yes, that was why Donald, also why Donald
00:14:33
Trump thought this was a good idea, because he saw Iran as being weak. But weak is not the same
00:14:39
thing as defenseless. And as I said, Iran is pulling out all the stops, straight of Hormuz,
00:14:44
hitting infrastructure in the GCC, including a desalinization plant in Bahrain. Iran has,
00:14:52
you know, a lot of great ideas. And I think that's a very, very important thing to think about.
00:14:52
It has 80 drones. So even if the U.S. sinks the Navy, you know, gets rid of the Air Force,
00:14:59
Iran has never had much of an Air Force, not since the Shah's day. It has drones. And those drones,
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not all of them can be intercepted. They're cheap and plentiful and easy to manufacture
00:15:13
in undisclosed locations. So that's why I say Iran will outlast the United States.
00:15:19
I wonder, Barbara, can we turn for a moment
00:15:22
to the human dimension of this? I'm curious your perspective of what may be happening inside for
00:15:29
the Iranian people. And I give you just two interesting data points. I have a friend who's
00:15:33
an expat from Iran who happened to be on a boat with 500 other expats. You know, she lives in
00:15:41
California at the time the war broke out. And I happened to be on a call with Homa. And I said,
00:15:46
how are, you know, these expat Iranians, many of whom still go back and forth to Iran?
00:15:51
And she said,
00:15:52
well, first of all, many people in Iran now feel things are so bad
00:15:57
that anything is better than what's been happening. And there were journalists, as you know,
00:16:02
who finally got into Tehran. And they may be cherry picking the interviews, but there were
00:16:08
interviews of Iranians saying, I feel very conflicted because on the one hand, I hate
00:16:13
seeing bombs. It's very scary. But at the same time, something has to change. So there are a lot
00:16:22
of things that we need to do. And as you know, we recently had all these protests that, as has
00:16:25
happened many times, wound up getting quelled. And we don't know how many people died. It might
00:16:29
be 3, might be 30. Who knows? What's your sense of what's happening inside Iran? If people
00:16:36
were free to speak, you know, what's your sense of the countervailing forces in Iran and what that
00:16:42
may mean, both from a human perspective, but also for the future of Iran and its relationships with
00:16:48
the world? Yeah, I think people are feeling very conflicted.
00:16:52
You know, clearly, Ayatollah Khamenei, the elder, was not popular. The regime is not popular.
00:16:57
As you pointed out, there were massive protests in January, which were brutally put down.
00:17:02
But the problem is this, you can't get rid of a regime like that by bombing it.
00:17:07
It's even hard to do it with ground forces, which we are not at this point employing.
00:17:12
So I think that there was the initial, yes, this is fantastic, you know, kill them all,
00:17:17
kill the Ayatollahs. And then the realization that, oh, my God, they bombed,
00:17:22
the building next to me and my neighbor died. They bombed the refinery, oil refinery
00:17:27
on the outskirts of Tehran. And there's horrible acid rain falling on my head and polluting what
00:17:34
is already a very polluted city. And the supreme leader is dead. And now his son is the supreme
00:17:41
leader. So I think that there may be buyer's remorse among many who wanted this or thought
00:17:48
they wanted this. You cannot do.
00:17:52
Regime change from the air. You simply can't. And Donald Trump has made it very clear
00:17:57
that he has no nation building plan. I think, again, the Pete Hegseth, our
00:18:02
secretary of war, has said repeatedly, no nation building. This is not Iraq.
00:18:08
Well, that means chaos, you know, or a power vacuum at best, or at worst, a consolidation
00:18:15
of an already extremely repressive regime. And right now we're seeing, I think, the latter.
00:18:22
And we're even seeing in the diaspora community, if you look at the commentary on social media,
00:18:27
you know, some of the people who were cheering this on, I'm thinking of a woman called Masih
00:18:31
Ali Najad. She has this frizzy hair and a flower stuck in her hair, who's been egging this on for
00:18:38
years and has suddenly gone quiet because they see what the devastation is. On the first day,
00:18:45
the U.S. hit a school accidentally near an IRGC facility and killed over a hundred
00:18:51
Iranian schoolgirls. That's how we started this war. Over a thousand Iranians are dead. You know,
00:18:58
many of them are civilians. So wars are, they can get out of hand very quickly, particularly if
00:19:05
there is no strategy, real strategy behind it, except punishment and degradation, which is
00:19:12
the strategy here of, you know, hit as many missile production sites as possible,
00:19:18
hit as many missile launcher sites as possible.
00:19:21
Clear facilities yet again, and hope that, you know, this somehow will solve your problem for
00:19:29
you. I don't think it will.
00:19:31
Life is likely to get even harder for the Iranian people now, isn't it? It's not likely to get,
00:19:37
certainly in the short and medium term, there's not a lot of path for life to get better in all,
00:19:42
in every way.
00:19:43
No, not at all. And you have to remember the January protests started because of
00:19:48
the sudden collapse of the Iranian currency.
00:19:51
It started with electronics merchants in the bazaar who didn't know how to price their iPhones
00:19:56
because the currency was devaluating so, so quickly. And our treasury secretary, Scott Besant,
00:20:02
bragged that he had somehow brought about a shortage of dollars very, very rapidly,
00:20:09
which caused this collapse. And he thought this was wonderful. So people went out on the streets
00:20:14
and risked their lives and thousands were killed. And we still have the Iranian regime.
00:20:19
And one of the questions,
00:20:21
one of the questions that we were wondering ahead of time was, does this make it more or less likely
00:20:27
that Iran pursues a nuclear bomb? Seems to me, if I were them, I would be like, let's fast track it
00:20:34
because North Korea can do whatever they want because they have them now. But you made a good
00:20:38
point. A lot of analysts have said the military objective for this, you can see how within a few
00:20:44
weeks, Trump and the Israelis, maybe the Israelis more reluctantly, but Trump declare victory saying
00:20:50
we've, you know, we've kind of gotten rid of the Navy. We've, we've set them back and we can hold
00:20:56
them in check. And well, what happens for the Iranian people is up to them, right? You could
00:21:00
see that happening. Yeah. I mean, that's kind of, and as you said, the political calculus almost
00:21:06
demands that, right? I said from the beginning, three to five weeks was the most Americans could
00:21:11
support the, I don't think they support the war period, but three to five weeks is about the most
00:21:16
the president could probably get away with. But let's talk about, you know,
00:21:20
what might happen. Elan, maybe let's explore what the, some options are.
00:21:26
Yes. What, what do you see as the best case and the worst case outcomes
00:21:31
for Iran, for its neighbors and for the broader region?
00:21:36
Well, the best case is that we get a ceasefire very quickly and everybody takes a deep breath
00:21:42
and steps back from this. And, you know, I don't think any real diplomacy is possible between Iran
00:21:49
and the, the Trump administration.
00:21:50
I mean, how many bridges can you burn? This is the second time the U.S. has attacked Iran while
00:21:56
in the midst of so-called negotiations. And of course, Trump in his first term withdrew from an
00:22:02
Iran deal that was functioning until Trump pulled out of it. So some sort of uneasy ceasefire that,
00:22:10
that goes on while everybody licks their wounds and tries to recover from this. Maybe some
00:22:17
diplomacy on the part of the Arabs, China.
00:22:20
Yeah.
00:22:21
To try to, to stabilize the situation. But it's really hard to see much good coming out of this
00:22:30
within Iran. There was, there was hope that once Ayatollah Khamenei, the elder was removed from the
00:22:36
scene, we might be able to see some recalibration on the part of the Iranian system. I guess it's
00:22:41
still possible under his son or a successor, if his son is killed. We remember that the Israelis
00:22:47
in the United States have threatened now to kill
00:22:50
the, the new Supreme Leader and presumably others after. We could see some recalibration. Certainly
00:22:58
Iran is going to have to lick its wounds after this. And the best case scenario is that some
00:23:04
effort is made to try to repair the breach with the Iranian people. Iran is a very complicated
00:23:10
system. It has a political parties, individuals who might step into the breach and, and begin to
00:23:18
try to, to, to fashion.
00:23:20
a new social compact. It's not going to be easy. I think, you know, certainly not while the bombs
00:23:25
are falling and not for a long time after that. This is a regime that is going to settle scores
00:23:30
and be even more paranoid and vindictive for a while. But ultimately, perhaps we could see some
00:23:37
shifts there. That's, that's the best case. Worst case, I mean, they're just so many. The war goes
00:23:43
on and on and there's more damage and devastation throughout the region. More people are killed in
00:23:49
Iran, Israel, the Gulf, more Americans die. Price of oil remains elevated. The world goes into a deep
00:23:56
recession as a result of this, this unprovoked war. And, and we all, you know, have to desperately
00:24:04
focus on our internal problems and not on exterior issues, at least for a while. And yeah, somehow
00:24:12
Iran gets a hold of the 900 pounds of 60% enriched uranium, which is under rubble and in,
00:24:19
is Fahan removes that and finds a place to make a nuclear weapon. That, that certainly would be
00:24:25
the worst case scenario. I know the Israelis, as you pointed out, have, that they went even further
00:24:31
than Trump administration. They said that we will take out any subsequent, they almost sound like
00:24:38
we don't care how many subsequent leaders, that rhetoric was kind of, we don't care how many
00:24:42
subsequent leaders you choose. We're going to take them out. And I mean, obviously that's an extreme.
00:24:47
Do you think at some point,
00:24:49
Israel has had a policy of assassination for a very long time. And it seems to think
00:24:54
that, that killing these people improves its, its posture, but there's always somebody else.
00:25:01
Do you know how many clerics there are in Iran? There's a city called Qum where the major
00:25:05
seminaries are located. And my late lovely driver on my trips to Iran used to call it the mullah
00:25:11
factory. You kill one, there will be another. I just, I don't, I don't see that, that killing
00:25:19
these people improves its posture. But there's always somebody else. Do you know how many clerics
00:25:19
have killed these people? Maybe it buys you time. Maybe it disorients your adversary for a while,
00:25:24
but there's always another one. If you don't solve root causes, there's always another one.
00:25:30
Yeah. You think that, I agree with you wholeheartedly. And it's kind of like whack-a-mole
00:25:36
in a way, right? You're just going to, but of course much more serious than whack-a-mole. And,
00:25:41
you know, I've read some people say, and I would agree with this, see if you agree that
00:25:45
while Israel would love to have a friendly Iran,
00:25:49
they think that's unlikely. So they would, they would, they would rather have
00:25:53
a, an Iran in complete disarray collapse. They'd rather have Syria 2.0 than the regime to survive.
00:26:03
Whereas I think Trump would, would is his fantasy is to have someone he can deal with,
00:26:08
right. You know, re reasonably deal with. And again, as you said, many opportunities already
00:26:13
lost. And I feel like Israel and the U S will start to diverge in their interest. And Israel
00:26:18
will have an interest in Israel. And I feel like Israel and the U S will start to diverge in their
00:26:19
interest in keeping the war going because the Israeli people, you know, and this is not a
00:26:24
criticism. I think we are willing to stay in bomb shelters for a long time, much longer than
00:26:29
Americans are willing to pay higher gas prices to go after Iran. And I suspect there's going to be
00:26:36
some tension in that relationship. If this goes on very long, I mean, there already is Trump
00:26:40
complained that the Israelis bombed the Iranian oil refinery, the big one outside Tehran and Trump
00:26:46
wants the oil just like Venezuela.
00:26:48
The way I described it last week was that Trump wanted a Venezuela and Israel wants a Libya.
00:26:56
Israel wants a broken country in chaos in, in civil war that cannot pose a threat to,
00:27:04
to anybody outside, except maybe through, you know, refugee flows, which we would,
00:27:09
would see certainly in that kind of scenario. But yeah, Trump is looking for his Iranian
00:27:13
Delcy Rodriguez and such a person does not exist.
00:27:17
Yeah. I feel like in,
00:27:18
in some ways Trump had that fantasy, right? I think, I think he was serious when he said
00:27:23
the people should ride. I mean, I think it was delusional, but I think he was serious that
00:27:27
the people will rise up and meaning like he had some level of fantasy that this would
00:27:33
cause regime change. And I mean, I don't know how he could imagine that.
00:27:37
Good on that day. Come on. This is Donald Trump.
00:27:41
I know what his best days. He probably has those kinds of fantasy.
00:27:45
I mean, don't, don't ascribe deep,
00:27:48
I'm describing like the opposite of describing that, like without thinking through the possibility
00:27:56
that, that did you notice he first, he was going to, he was going to energize the Kurds. And then
00:28:01
he changed his mind when the prime minister of Turkey called him and said, no, that's not a good
00:28:07
idea. We would be very upset if you started helping the Kurds. Plus the Kurds have been
00:28:12
used a few times and then turned around and got bitten by any of this.
00:28:17
He doesn't,
00:28:18
he doesn't think through any of this and he has no guardrails around him now.
00:28:21
I hope you're enjoying this conversation we're having with Barbara Slaven about the
00:28:25
present situation in Iran as much as we are, and we'll get back to it in just a moment.
00:28:30
But for now, I'd like to thank you for being a part of our community and to really encourage you
00:28:34
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00:29:17
Thank you.
00:29:18
love you to comment to follow us and to reach out to us now let's get back to barbara i mean we did
00:29:24
have reports before the war that members of the military were advising him that this was a very
00:29:31
risky thing to do but he brushed it aside because he wanted to do it you know and and the days when
00:29:37
he had a jim mattis or or or a kelly or you know uh or i'm trying to think of the others who were
00:29:47
checks on him i mean there weren't that many but but he had professional people in his first term
00:29:52
who told him no this is not a good idea and he didn't but now he doesn't have any of those people
00:29:58
in a position to tell him no and barbara from a global perspective what are china and russia
00:30:06
likely to do as this unfolds will they intervene stay on the sidelines use this an opportunity
00:30:15
elsewhere taiwan
00:30:17
ukraine it would be very interesting to look at that uh well they're both benefiting russia because
00:30:24
the price of oil has skyrocketed and also trump has has lifted sanctions on the sale of russian
00:30:30
oil to india so russia is making out like gangbusters the russians are also providing
00:30:37
intelligence to iran which it is using against american targets and when asked about this the
00:30:44
white house press secretary seemed to think there was nothing to do with it
00:30:47
i don't think there was anything untoward about it unbelievable unbelievable china china is the
00:30:53
adult in the room you know it sits back and says look the united states has started another crazy
00:30:59
war and it's it's hurting the world economy and we china are you know we're we're the responsible
00:31:06
stakeholder and we're the country that should be leading the world order so both russia and
00:31:11
china are benefiting enormously and another question that may be in the minds of americans
00:31:17
who could be uh all canadians or europeans that could experience some strengthened terrorist
00:31:26
activity although iran is weakened what happens to hasbala hamas the hooties that iran has been
00:31:34
supporting yeah well we saw hasbala very unwisely get into a new war with israel which has resulted
00:31:42
in hundreds of deaths already in lebanon and something like a fifth of the population being
00:31:46
displaced yet again from south lebanon and from the southern suburbs of beirut the hooties have not
00:31:53
yet gotten into the act i think they may at some point if this goes on but so far they they've not
00:31:59
we've seen militias in iraq attack american uh targets in baghdad and in the north of iraq in
00:32:07
iraqi kurdistan hamas i think is preoccupied with its own predicament in gaza but we have seen this
00:32:16
and of course
00:32:16
terrorism yeah it doesn't have to be iran-backed terrorists it can simply be
00:32:21
someone who is inspired by this war and feels that the united states has once again behaved
00:32:28
in a horrible manner toward a muslim country and simply decides that this is the moment when they
00:32:35
should attack a soft target in the united states or canada or europe or australia or new zealand
00:32:41
simply to to get back at them for a war that has already killed more than a
00:32:46
thousand iranians and in many ways we've had a long hiatus after the kind of what happened with
00:32:54
isis kind of collapsing in many ways we had kind of a hiatus of this kind of terrorism acts across
00:33:01
the world and one can't help but think this might spur a new round of that i mean we've already seen
00:33:07
people who've been who've been motivated by gaza and the death of over what 70 000 palestinians
00:33:14
so now you have you know i mean i think it's it's not it's not but i think it's not it's not because
00:33:15
you know it's it's not you know you're not you know you're not you know you're not you're not you're not
00:33:16
you're not you're not you're not you're not you're not you're not you're not you're not you're not
00:33:16
know, Iranians on top of that, right? I mean, you know, there are people who resent this
00:33:21
and think that the United States and Israel have no right to kill so many Muslims,
00:33:26
and they will take matters into their hands. It also could just be some garden variety crazy
00:33:31
with access to guns, and Lord knows we have enough of them. You know, one of the other things that
00:33:35
this has done, I was thinking of my good friend whose son was just in Dubai before this for weeks
00:33:41
and weeks visiting a friend, and I know lots of people who have lived or live in that area of the
00:33:47
world. This has sure shaken that sense of, I mean, these were kind of meccas, maybe pun intended,
00:33:55
of economic prosperity in the Middle East. And what do you think this means for their relationship
00:34:01
with the Iranian regime? I mean, it's clear why Iran is doing it because, you know, they want the
00:34:07
war to end quickly. So the more they damage...
00:34:11
economic infrastructure and shake up oil, the more that's going to happen. But they're really
00:34:15
burning some bridges, aren't they, with folks who've tried to at least bring some resolution.
00:34:23
So do you think this may shake up the feeling of stability in the entire region for some time?
00:34:29
And what are your thoughts on some of that? Yeah, well, this is a region that has never
00:34:32
really been at peace, but particularly since the Hamas attacks on Israel, it has not been at peace.
00:34:38
We had a sort of ceasefire in Gaza,
00:34:41
but, you know, Palestinians were being killed every day. We had a sort of ceasefire in Lebanon,
00:34:46
but Israel was attacking Lebanon every other day and was also attacking Syria.
00:34:51
So it's false to say that it was at peace. But obviously, everything now has been amped up
00:34:56
enormously because of this war. The GCC states and Iran, I mean, they've always been rivals.
00:35:03
There's no love lost there. And I think these countries understand why Iran is doing this,
00:35:09
even if they're unhappy about it. And
00:35:11
they tried to persuade the United States and Israel not to start a war. They tried and tried.
00:35:16
Look at what the Omanis were doing, and others as well, the Qataris, the Saudis, but Trump didn't
00:35:22
listen. And so I think that there will be a re-evaluation of their relationship with the
00:35:27
United States and Israel. You know, the talk of the Abraham Accords expanding, well, forget about
00:35:33
that. But a lot of these countries are going to feel that having American bases on their territory
00:35:38
leaves them more vulnerable, and it does not protect them. And so I think that's going to be a
00:35:41
against adversaries. So I think there will be a lot of ripple effects over time.
00:35:47
So, Barbara, I'm thinking if I were a listener of your everything, it's a very depressing podcast.
00:35:52
I'm sorry.
00:35:53
No, no, no. I don't mean that at you. So I don't want to say what's the good news,
00:35:58
but it's more maybe going back to the best case scenario. Put on your Solomon hat,
00:36:05
your wisdom hat here. And if you were to give advice,
00:36:11
about the path forward from here that might be more constructive, even if it you think it less
00:36:17
likely, what do you think is a potential path forward that might lead to a more constructive
00:36:24
outcome, even if it takes some time to get there? Well, anybody who's read my book knows that I've
00:36:30
not been a supporter of U.S. policy toward Iran for a very long time. I think we've really gone
00:36:35
about this the wrong way. I mean, what you want to do is empower Iranian people to,
00:36:41
take more power in their own country. And you can't do that by bombing them and sanctioning
00:36:46
them. Particularly economic sanctions have made Iranian society much poorer. It's made it much
00:36:53
more difficult for people to be able to sustain protests. So I would say a ceasefire very quickly
00:37:00
and an effort to put forward some sort of diplomatic offer that's realistic,
00:37:07
that doesn't require capitulation.
00:37:11
The part of Iran, but that is realistic. And that eventually looks toward recognition,
00:37:17
diplomatic recognition and relief of sanctions that would enable the Iranian people to begin
00:37:23
to change their own government. But politically, that's not realistic in the United States,
00:37:28
especially not after this war. I think we're going to have to wait until after Trump.
00:37:34
This is always the problem. You know, we finally get a decent policy toward Iran,
00:37:38
as we did under Obama. And then we get a new administration that throws
00:37:41
it all out the window. There's more continuity in authoritarian places like Iran, obviously,
00:37:47
than there is in the United States. So it's going to be very difficult. But all regimes,
00:37:51
bad regimes eventually do come to an end. Unfortunately, sometimes they get a lot worse
00:37:57
before they get better. You've spent a lifetime trying to help us understand your book, Bitter
00:38:03
Friends, Bosom Enemies, and your work at the Stimson Center has been really important. I'm curious,
00:38:11
given that you've spent your career trying to help Americans in the West understand Iran and
00:38:16
Iranians in this moment, what do you most want Americans, people in the West to understand about
00:38:23
Iran? What would be most helpful for them to understand about Iran that might help pave the
00:38:30
way for a constructive path forward? And by the way, I should go without saying people should
00:38:34
listen to our previous podcast with you in which you talked about the fact that one of the challenges
00:38:41
U.S. administration changing every four or eight years is part of the issue. So we have not had a
00:38:46
consistent path. And so please listen to that previous podcast. But talk about what would you
00:38:51
most want people to understand about Iran and the Iranian nation and culture that you think
00:38:58
would help us even as we frame going forward? Oh, look, I mean, you know, try to understand
00:39:05
your adversary. Don't demonize people. Understand that this is a long,
00:39:11
and deep culture, that many of the problems we have with Iran exerting influence in the region,
00:39:18
you know, Iran has always exerted influence in its region, by virtue of its size, by virtue of
00:39:24
its population, by virtue of its Shia faith, by virtue of its culture, its literature, its poetry.
00:39:31
So again, you know, Trump talks about and others talk about
00:39:35
eliminating Iran's ability to project power in the Middle East. That's delusional.
00:39:41
It's not going to happen. You have particularly Shia Muslims throughout the region who identify
00:39:47
with Iran to some extent or another, because it's the largest Shia Muslim country and Shiaism is a
00:39:52
minority sect in Islam and historically discriminated against by the majority Sunni
00:39:57
sect. So after the U.S. attacked Iran, we saw protests outside the U.S. embassy in Pakistan,
00:40:03
which is 30% Shia. In Lebanon, obviously, Shia are a large percentage of the population. In Iraq,
00:40:11
a plurality, if not a majority. In Bahrain, even in Saudi Arabia, there are many, many Shias. So
00:40:18
Iran will always exert influence in the Middle East. We have to try to put forward policies
00:40:25
that incentivize Iran to exert influence in a positive manner and not in a negative one.
00:40:32
And some of that can be done through military force, but not all of it. And clearly, if we're
00:40:37
at this point now, what we've done over the last 47 years, we've done a lot of things that have
00:40:41
been a colossal failure, or we wouldn't be at this stage. So read, understand the culture,
00:40:46
read the Shahnameh, read Rumi, read Hafez, you know, read my book. These are people
00:40:54
with a tremendous capacity for joy and celebration and a wonderful culture. So everybody knows about
00:41:02
Iranian food and culture, Iranian film. Treat them as you would want to be treated yourself
00:41:08
and give them that respect, and you would be surprised.
00:41:11
How far that might go.
00:41:13
I'm thinking, Barbara, of that initial instinct you had about the Russians are people too,
00:41:17
right? That you've spent a lifetime helping. You know, it's so easy to just demonize the people
00:41:23
who we call enemies at any given even moment. And yet we can't ever build a bridge if we don't take
00:41:30
the time to understand.
00:41:32
Yeah, no, it's Americans. I mean, we have a very binary, you know, black, white
00:41:38
kind of politics when it comes to...
00:41:41
I hadn't noticed.
00:41:41
International affairs. Yeah. And it hurts us. It always hurts us because we wind up,
00:41:47
you know, not understanding our adversaries and thereby making, you know, mistake after mistake.
00:41:53
I mean, look at the military interventions we've undertaken. I mean, we got rid of the Taliban,
00:42:00
and now we have the Taliban back. Iraq is still a very troubled place where I would argue that
00:42:07
Iran has more influence than the United States. And we killed...
00:42:11
We killed one Ayatollah Khamenei, and now we have another Ayatollah Khamenei. I mean,
00:42:14
think for a minute before we do these things. It just defies logic. And, you know, I think the
00:42:21
fact that this is not a popular war, that Trump didn't even bother to try to explain
00:42:26
the motivation for it. I mean, essentially, he threw spaghetti at the wall and, you know,
00:42:32
see what would stick. And nothing is really sticking, you know? If you compare it, a lot
00:42:38
of people were nostalgic for George W. Bush, who took his time to think about what was going on.
00:42:41
To war in Iraq under false pretenses, but at least tried to convince us it was a good idea
00:42:45
for more than a year before the U.S. invaded, went to the U.N., you know, went to Congress.
00:42:53
Trump is dispensed with all of that. And that's another reason why this war is not popular and
00:42:59
hopefully will not last long. Question for you, some listeners may be wondering about,
00:43:05
obviously, the regime's official position has been very... And in terms of their funding of
00:43:10
some of these proxies against Israel have been very, you know, anti-Israel as a state.
00:43:17
Do you feel most Iranians forget this present war moment, let's say before this war moment,
00:43:23
that the vast majority of people in Iran would say, we're OK being at peace with Israel,
00:43:28
let Israel exist. And we just want we just want to have, you know, a decent life. And do you think
00:43:35
that represents the majority of the Iranian people who really, you know, again, they may
00:43:39
have resentments against Israel.
00:43:40
For some things that have happened, but they're not really trying to eliminate the Jewish state,
00:43:45
because that's kind of like the myth, right, is that the Iranians are all completely against,
00:43:51
you know, Israel. Majority of Iranians are not anti-Israel, and most of them could care less
00:43:57
about the Palestinians. And this has been true for a very long time. But the regime is against
00:44:03
the state of Israel. And that, I think, I mean, has been its big strategic mistake. Again,
00:44:10
there were opportunities.
00:44:10
There were opportunities to change that under Mohammad Hatemi in the 90s. After September 11,
00:44:18
the Iranians wanted to have a broad agreement with the United States that would have addressed
00:44:23
these issues. There were ways to mitigate that. But because the United States has maintained
00:44:29
its hostility toward Iran or resumed it under Trump, those opportunities to convince the
00:44:36
Iranians to tone down the anti-Israel stuff, I think that that, you know, I think that's a
00:44:40
as well. This isn't ideology. This isn't Islamic ideology. Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of the
00:44:46
revolution, was very opposed to Israel. He saw it as a Western colonial implant in the region,
00:44:54
not alone in feeling that way. And of course, the Shah had been very close to Israel. And so,
00:44:59
it was a reaction to the Shah as well. And it's turned out to be catastrophic for Iran.
00:45:07
But this has been the policy. And as I said, there have been moments when,
00:45:10
perhaps, we could have steered Iran away from it and, you know, with agreements on nuclear issues,
00:45:16
sanctions, relief, and so on. But we've not made it worth their while to give this up.
00:45:21
The fault is on Iran primarily for adopting this stance, but on us as well,
00:45:27
for not finding a way to give them a pathway out of it that, again, enabled the regime to save face.
00:45:34
As long as we think we can bludgeon this government into doing what we want,
00:45:39
we're not going to get anywhere.
00:45:40
Who wants to be punched in the face and told,
00:45:44
do what I say or else? And that is Donald Trump's attitude toward most of the world,
00:45:48
allies and adversaries. And it doesn't work very well. And we're seeing that.
00:45:53
Barbara, as a Frenchman, I am asking myself, can the Europeans who have their share in the
00:46:00
Middle East mess play a useful role in the next few years in that situation?
00:46:07
Europeans haven't played a useful role since 2018.
00:46:10
No, seriously. I mean, they're playing a useful role in Ukraine, but not when it comes to Iran.
00:46:17
Back in the day, Europeans helped negotiate with Iran some agreements while the George W. Bush
00:46:23
administration refused to negotiate with Iran unless it would agree to give up its nuclear
00:46:28
program. Europeans stepped in, particularly Britain, France, and Germany, and they were great,
00:46:34
paved the way for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015. But after Trump pulled out,
00:46:40
Europeans have been playing a useful role in Ukraine. They've been playing a useful role in
00:46:40
trying to maintain some sort of trade ties with Iran, but it was impossible because of U.S. economic
00:46:46
sanctions. So Iran pivoted to Russia and China, particularly to China. And since that time,
00:46:52
frankly, Europeans have not been able to play much of a role. Also, I mean, under Javier Solana and
00:46:58
others, you know, not trying to think who came after him. The EU high representative after Solana
00:47:04
was also pretty good. And I've forgotten his name. Spaniard, former Spanish foreign minister,
00:47:10
maybe.
00:47:10
Remember his name. He was good, too. After that, we have now an Estonian, I believe,
00:47:17
or I forget her nationality. It's all about Ukraine. And so Europe doesn't forgive Iran
00:47:22
for providing drones to Russia to use in Ukraine. And, you know, it's basically, I mean, I don't
00:47:29
think Europe is happy about this war, but they don't seem to be doing very much to get in the
00:47:33
way. In fact, they seem to be increasingly stepping in to help the United States and Israel.
00:47:38
I've been very underwhelmed,
00:47:40
to say the least, by Europe.
00:47:43
Thank you.
00:47:43
One gets the feeling that, at least in this present moment, I certainly I split my time
00:47:48
between Canada and the U.S. I'm a dual citizen. And I think there are countries like Canada and
00:47:54
the European Union at this point may feel pretty helpless to do very much. And they may actually
00:47:59
be right, right, that there that there isn't much they can do right now, even though they may want
00:48:06
to. Barbara, what what final message would you want to share with our audience?
00:48:10
You know, in closing, really appreciate, by the way, all the insight that you've given us into what
00:48:17
is a very difficult and sad moment?
00:48:20
Yeah. I was trying to find the name of the previous high representative of the
00:48:26
EU. Now it's Kaia Callis, who has taken a very, very anti-Iran stance. Anyway, I will find that
00:48:34
name and, and let you know because the the one before her was actually fairly constructive, at
00:48:39
least tried to be.
00:48:40
be. But as I said, basically, it's been impossible since Ukraine. Look, you know,
00:48:47
encourage Donald Trump to declare victory and end this war as fast as humanly possible before he
00:48:53
does more damage to Iran, to the GCC, to the international economy, to Israeli civilians.
00:49:01
Declare victory and end it. Fair enough. Well, Ilan, any closing comment from you,
00:49:06
then I'll bring us to a close. And again, we encourage you to read Barbara's books,
00:49:10
look her up. She's got great, look up her work at the Stimson Center as well.
00:49:15
A lot of important things to share with us. Ilan, any closing thoughts from you?
00:49:19
Well, I thank you, Barbara, for this very enlightening conversation we had about this.
00:49:25
One thing that keeps bugging me a little bit is you have heard the president of Iran make apologies
00:49:33
if the other countries in the Gulf had
00:49:36
been able to do the same thing.
00:49:36
And it may be a bit late to bring this up, but is there actually, are there some dissensions
00:49:44
within the Iranian government that explains that gesture?
00:49:50
Yeah, well, I think Pazeshkin, the president, has spent a lot of time trying to mend ties with
00:49:55
these countries. So it's difficult, difficult watching, but he is not an important player
00:50:00
in the Iranian system. So I wouldn't put much stock in it. I just, it was Yosef Borrell,
00:50:05
who was the high representative for foreign policy for the EU before Kayakalis. So I just
00:50:11
wanted to give him credit. He was a very strong proponent of European diplomacy with Iran. So
00:50:17
I wanted to do that. No, Pazeshkin and the reform movement in general in Iran has been much,
00:50:24
much weakened over the years by a system which has been dominated by the Islamic
00:50:30
Revolutionary Guard Corps and hardline clerics. And they, they are the people who remain in
00:50:35
control. So I guess my closing thought, thank you, Barbara, is I find myself deeply saddened by
00:50:41
all of this. I often think to myself, all these millions of years of evolution, and we're still
00:50:47
at war with each other and launching missiles at each other and trying to develop bombs of
00:50:52
mass destruction if we don't have them. And I'm deeply sad for the people of Iran in all of this,
00:50:59
because it seems to me their life is going to be worse off, at least in the short and medium term,
00:51:05
from all of this. And I was really struck by something you said, Barbara, when I asked that
00:51:09
question about the sentiment towards Israel. And just I had said at the beginning that in many ways
00:51:16
the regime has held the Iranian people hostage over these last 40 years as well. And I can't
00:51:23
help but, and I'm not putting it all on them, as you said, there are many countervailing forces on
00:51:28
all sides. But just thinking about the people of Iran, I wish they one day can be free in such a
00:51:35
rich and beautiful culture with such a great history and so much to offer the world. I'm
00:51:40
tearing up even as I say it. So that's where my prayers go. And certainly, as you've pointed out,
00:51:46
Barbara, this will not make that any more likely in the short or medium term. But one can always
00:51:52
hope. And as you said, Barbara, a great reminder, I think, is Gandhi, who said, you know, for a time
00:51:57
tyrants rule, but they have always fallen. And there are many tyrants who perhaps need to fall.
00:52:05
So anyway, thank you, Barbara. And thank you, our listeners and viewers. If you love what you've
00:52:09
heard, please let us know. Please follow us and share it and comment on whatever site you are
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finding us on. And if you want to buy us a coffee and support our work, you can see that on our link
00:52:22
on our site, wayforwardpodcast.com. As always, we end every podcast reminding us that history is not
00:52:30
a destination waiting for us to arrive. What we will one day call history will be the
00:52:35
result of the actions that we take today. And as Barbara reminded us, we as individual citizens
00:52:41
are not on the sidelines in this moment. We always can express our voice and our voice matters.
00:52:48
We'll see you next time on The Way Forward. Thank you for joining us in this episode
00:52:53
of The Way Forward Regenerative Conversations podcast. I'm Jim Burke, the producer.
00:52:59
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